Why the Paris Agreement's NDCs Are Failing and What to Do

There is a common misconception that the Paris Agreement is a legally binding treaty that will save us from climate change. It is not. The Paris Agreement is a legally binding treaty, yes, but its core commitments—the nationally determined contributions (NDCs)—are voluntary. Each country decides its own target, and there is no enforcement mechanism if they miss it. This is why, despite the fanfare of 2015, global emissions keep rising. The Paris Agreement is a diplomatic triumph and a policy failure.

In this article, we’ll answer a single, specific question: Should we keep relying on the Paris Agreement’s voluntary NDCs, or is it time to push for legally binding targets and carbon pricing? As practitioners in environmental policy, we need to be honest about what works. The evidence is stark: voluntary pledges are not cutting it.

The Numbers Don’t Lie

Let’s look at the raw data. According to the OECD Climate Action Monitor 2025, global greenhouse gas emissions hit a record 57.7 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2024, up 2.3% from the year before. The G20 countries alone account for 77% of global emissions, and their emissions were still rising in 2024. The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2024 found that current NDCs commit to only a 14% collective reduction by 2030 versus 2022 levels. The IPCC says we need a 43% cut by 2030 to limit warming to 1.5°C. That’s a massive gap—about 29 percentage points.

Even worse, the OECD report projects that under current policies, the world is on track for about 2.8°C of warming this century, falling to 2.5°C if all unconditional NDCs are met. Neither is anywhere near the Paris goal of “well below 2°C” and pursuing 1.5°C. The IPCC states that emissions need to be cut by almost half by 2030 to have a chance at 1.5°C. We are not on that path.

The Problem with Voluntary Pledges

Why are NDCs failing? It’s simple: they are voluntary. There is no penalty for missing a target. The Paris Agreement operates on a five-year cycle where countries submit updated NDCs, but there’s no enforcement. The first global stocktake at COP28 concluded with a call to “transition away” from fossil fuels, but it stopped short of a phaseout. That’s the kind of weak language you get when you rely on consensus and goodwill.

Contrast this with the Montreal Protocol, which is often cited as the most successful environmental treaty. It was legally binding, with specific targets and timetables for phasing out ozone-depleting substances. As a result, the ozone layer is on its way to recovery. The Paris Agreement lacks that binding character.

Some argue that legally binding targets would be impossible to negotiate, but we already have a precedent: the Kyoto Protocol. It set legally binding emissions reduction targets for 41 countries plus the EU, but the U.S. never ratified it, and it ultimately failed to reduce global emissions. However, Kyoto’s failure was due to a lack of participation, not the binding nature. We need a hybrid approach: binding targets for the largest emitters, with flexibility for developing countries.

What Works: Carbon Pricing

One tool that has proven effective is carbon pricing. The World Bank’s State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2024 report shows that carbon pricing revenues hit a record $104 billion in 2023, with 75 carbon pricing instruments in operation. These instruments now cover 24% of global emissions, up from just 7% when the World Bank first started tracking. Carbon pricing creates a financial incentive to reduce emissions, and it can be implemented alongside NDCs.

However, carbon pricing alone is not enough. The IEA’s Net Zero Roadmap 2023 emphasizes that the single largest driver of emissions reductions to 2030 is tripling global renewable power capacity. It also calls for doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements and cutting energy sector methane emissions by 75%. These are concrete, actionable steps that go beyond vague NDCs.

We should also consider the Global Methane Pledge, launched by the U.S. and EU at COP26, which commits to reducing methane emissions by 30% below 2020 levels by 2030. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, and reducing it is the fastest strategy to slow warming, according to the U.S. State Department. Over 100 countries have joined, representing 70% of the global economy. That’s a voluntary pledge too, but it has a specific target and a clear timeframe.

Our Recommendation

So, what should we do? We cannot abandon the Paris Agreement—it provides a framework for international cooperation. But we need to strengthen it. First, we should push for legally binding NDCs for the top 20 emitters, who are responsible for the majority of emissions. Second, we should expand carbon pricing to cover a larger share of global emissions. Third, we should prioritize sectoral agreements like the Global Methane Pledge, which can deliver quick wins.

Some will say this is unrealistic, but we’ve done it before. The Montreal Protocol was amended six times, and the Kigali Amendment in 2016 called for a phase-down of HFCs, powerful greenhouse gases. That shows we can strengthen treaties over time. We need to be bold.

The single most important thing to remember is this: voluntary pledges are not enough. We need binding commitments and market-based mechanisms to drive the rapid, deep cuts in emissions that science demands. The clock is ticking—2024 was likely the first year more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, according to WMO. We cannot afford to keep kicking the can down the road.

Sources

• OECD Climate Action Monitor 2025 / UNEP - https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2025/11/the-climate-action-monitor-2025_aed0c4bb.html
• UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2024 - https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2024
• World Bank State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2024 - https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2024/05/21/global-carbon-pricing-revenues-top-a-record-100-billion
• IEA Net Zero Roadmap 2023 - https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-roadmap-a-global-pathway-to-keep-the-15-0c-goal-in-reach
• WMO State of the Global Climate 2024 - https://wmo.int/publication-series/state-of-global-climate-2024